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BTC and ETH On-Chain Data Analysis – March 21, 2026

CoinDirection On-Chain Data Analysis

Daily Bitcoin and Ethereum on-chain analysis based on exchange flows, ETF net flows and whale activity.
Source: Dune
Updated: March 21, 2026 06:41 UTC

Market Overview

Bitcoin's exchange net inflows have dropped significantly but remain slightly positive, while ETF flows turned sharply negative today compared to recent positive averages. Over the past week, Bitcoin's exchange inflows have steadily declined, ETF flows have reversed from positive to negative, and whale activity has sharply decreased, indicating a shift from prior accumulation to uncertain demand dynamics.

Daily On-Chain Analysis

Bitcoin Daily On-Chain Flow Analysis
Bias: neutral | Confidence: medium

Bitcoin's exchange net inflows have dropped significantly but remain slightly positive, while ETF flows turned sharply negative today compared to recent positive averages.

Key points
  • Exchange netflow decreased by ~59% vs 3-day average but still slightly positive
  • ETF netflow shifted from +1036 to -914, a sharp reversal
  • Whale transaction count and volume dropped over 89% and 92% respectively
  • Reduced whale activity suggests lower immediate distribution or accumulation
  • Exchange inflows still imply some sell pressure but diminished
Risks
  • ETF outflows may indicate weakening demand
  • Slightly positive exchange inflows could still pressure price
  • Low whale activity reduces clarity on large holder intent
  • Potential volatility from conflicting signals

Conclusion: Bitcoin's daily on-chain data shows a mixed picture with reduced sell pressure from exchanges but a significant drop in ETF demand and whale activity, suggesting cautious short-term outlook without clear directional conviction.

Bitcoin Medium-Term On-Chain Trends
Bias: mixed | Confidence: medium

Over the past week, Bitcoin's exchange inflows have steadily declined, ETF flows have reversed from positive to negative, and whale activity has sharply decreased, indicating a shift from prior accumulation to uncertain demand dynamics.

Key points
  • Exchange netflows down ~57% vs 7-day average, indicating less sell pressure
  • ETF netflows reversed from +1028 to -914, signaling reduced institutional demand
  • Whale transaction counts and volumes down over 90%, reducing large holder influence
  • Persistent negative ETF flows contrast with exchange data
  • Trend suggests waning demand despite lower exchange inflows
Risks
  • ETF outflows may pressure price if sustained
  • Low whale activity reduces potential for strong accumulation
  • Exchange inflows, though reduced, remain positive
  • Market may react to conflicting signals with volatility

Conclusion: Bitcoin's medium-term on-chain trends reflect a transition phase with diminishing institutional demand and subdued whale activity, creating a mixed outlook where reduced sell pressure is offset by weakening demand signals.

Ethereum Daily On-Chain Flow Analysis
Bias: bullish | Confidence: medium

Ethereum's exchange netflows remain negative indicating continued outflows and accumulation, while ETF outflows have sharply decreased in magnitude, suggesting less demand erosion today.

Key points
  • Exchange netflow negative at -5971 ETH, less outflow than recent averages
  • ETF netflow negative but improved from -21,410 to -31
  • Whale activity sharply reduced by over 93% in count and volume
  • Reduced whale movement may indicate pause in distribution
  • Exchange outflows support accumulation thesis
Risks
  • ETF flows remain negative, indicating ongoing demand weakness
  • Low whale activity reduces clarity on large holder positioning
  • Exchange outflows have lessened, possibly signaling slowing accumulation
  • Potential for short-term volatility due to mixed signals

Conclusion: Ethereum's daily on-chain data suggests ongoing accumulation via exchange outflows with easing ETF outflows, though subdued whale activity tempers confidence in sustained demand strength.

Ethereum Medium-Term On-Chain Trends
Bias: neutral | Confidence: medium

Ethereum shows persistent exchange outflows indicating accumulation, but ETF flows and whale activity have drastically declined, reflecting cautious sentiment and reduced institutional and large holder engagement.

Key points
  • Exchange outflows remain consistently negative but less intense than prior week
  • ETF netflows remain negative with near 100% improvement but still outflows
  • Whale transaction counts and volumes down over 93%, signaling low large holder activity
  • Trend suggests accumulation but with diminished demand momentum
  • ETF and whale signals conflict with exchange accumulation
Risks
  • Sustained negative ETF flows may limit upside
  • Low whale activity reduces potential for strong directional moves
  • Exchange outflows slowing, possibly signaling accumulation fatigue
  • Conflicting signals could increase volatility

Conclusion: Ethereum's medium-term on-chain trends indicate ongoing accumulation via exchange outflows but reduced institutional and whale participation, resulting in a neutral outlook with potential for volatility amid mixed signals.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Exchange Net Flow
0.00000281
Bitcoin ETF Net Flow
-913.86
Bitcoin Whale Tx
90
Bitcoin Moved by Whales
31.81K

Bitcoin Exchange Flows

Bitcoin ETF Net Flow

Bitcoin Whale Activity

Bitcoin Summary Tables

Latest Bitcoin Exchange Flows
DateBitcoin InflowBitcoin OutflowBitcoin Net Flow
2026-03-210.000052610.000049800.00000281
2026-03-200.000483430.000474980.00000845
2026-03-190.000401090.000393330.00000776
2026-03-180.000682850.000678410.00000444
2026-03-170.000816880.00085021-0.00003332
2026-03-160.000837130.000780050.00005709
2026-03-150.000191140.000191100.00000005
2026-03-140.000237950.000236780.00000116
2026-03-130.000754230.00080144-0.00004721
2026-03-120.000672210.00077012-0.00009791
2026-03-110.000439050.00047970-0.00004065
2026-03-100.000500210.00054948-0.00004927
2026-03-090.000521570.00054702-0.00002546
2026-03-080.000180690.000169340.00001134
2026-03-070.000177840.000176700.00000114
Latest Bitcoin ETF Net Flows
DateBitcoin ETF Net Flow
2026-03-20-913.86
2026-03-19-838.76
2026-03-182,298.09
2026-03-171,649.80
2026-03-162,045.77
2026-03-150.00
2026-03-13566.51
2026-03-121,477.40
2026-03-112,628.01
2026-03-101,337.78
2026-03-09-2,712.20
2026-03-06-2,605.51
2026-03-055,366.20
2026-03-044,892.99
2026-03-035,464.69
Latest Bitcoin Whale Activity
DateWhale TxBitcoin Moved
2026-03-219031,806.33
2026-03-20831379,330.87
2026-03-19902362,086.48
2026-03-181,012498,596.08
2026-03-171,128535,007.51
2026-03-161,032666,522.65
2026-03-15670313,807.50
2026-03-14613320,957.34
2026-03-13974489,585.53
2026-03-12879452,031.68
2026-03-11898441,276.51
2026-03-10959505,513.57
2026-03-09792408,344.17
2026-03-08264233,534.54
2026-03-07311216,239.21

Ethereum

Ethereum Exchange Net Flow
-5,970.95
Ethereum ETF Net Flow
-31.16
Ethereum Whale Tx
32
Ethereum Moved by Whales
117.08K

Ethereum Exchange Flows

Ethereum ETF Net Flow

Ethereum Whale Activity

Ethereum Summary Tables

Latest Ethereum Exchange Flows
DateEthereum InflowEthereum OutflowEthereum Net Flow
2026-03-2121,441.4627,412.41-5,970.95
2026-03-20504,307.40525,288.45-20,981.05
2026-03-19490,150.97576,873.73-86,722.77
2026-03-18667,669.81717,852.56-50,182.74
2026-03-17483,357.98584,681.43-101,323.45
2026-03-16570,598.44597,330.85-26,732.41
2026-03-15136,563.49163,345.21-26,781.73
2026-03-14109,909.83126,405.56-16,495.73
2026-03-13482,538.90540,741.72-58,202.82
2026-03-12455,554.91781,561.70-326,006.78
2026-03-11521,254.97723,089.41-201,834.43
2026-03-10497,282.00741,163.24-243,881.24
2026-03-09449,001.71725,905.15-276,903.44
2026-03-08244,020.82252,844.92-8,824.10
2026-03-07172,998.95135,354.6837,644.27
Latest Ethereum ETF Net Flows
DateEthereum ETF Net Flow
2026-03-21-31.16
2026-03-20-56,000.89
2026-03-19-13,352.58
2026-03-185,121.96
2026-03-17-54,456.35
2026-03-16-9,152.89
2026-03-151,106.37
2026-03-14-851.43
2026-03-13-54,272.38
2026-03-12-1,177.90
2026-03-11962.13
2026-03-10-33,292.73
2026-03-09-3,794.44
2026-03-08-3,097.56
2026-03-071,048.75
Latest Ethereum Whale Activity
DateWhale TxEthereum Moved
2026-03-2132117,079.62
2026-03-205852,120,355.04
2026-03-195531,942,562.02
2026-03-186332,582,610.10
2026-03-175121,824,341.85
2026-03-166952,638,439.03
2026-03-15221607,597.38
2026-03-142271,058,298.04
2026-03-135812,323,423.65
2026-03-124471,784,253.95
2026-03-115582,450,785.90
2026-03-105392,055,391.34
2026-03-095321,687,112.28
2026-03-081,2662,210,411.72
2026-03-07318933,391.02